The Road to Germany 2006: World Cup qualifying

For most Americans, the soccer World Cup--if it registers at all--is a one-month curiosity that comes around just once every four years. The reality, though, is that the 32-team "finals" tournament is but the final chapter of a saga that extends over two whole years and literally covers the entire globe. That lengthy prelude to next summer's WC finals is now almost over, and several countries have already punched their ticket to Germany 2006--including the USA for the fifth straight time! Nonetheless, with just one or two qualifying games left for most countries, as many as 20 spots remain open. For soccer fans around the world, a thrilling, anxiety-inducing climax thus awaits when qualifying play resumes the second weekend of October. Here's a quick summary, region by region, of where things now stand: Note: countries in blue have already qualified; countries in purple are on the verge; countries in red are still in the hunt. Africa All five African places remain undetermined with just one climactic weekend (October 7-9) looming ahead. Traditional soccer power Ghana are virtually assured of what would be, remarkably, its first-ever appearance in a World Cup finals; with South Africa already eliminated from contention, only Congo clings to the slimmest of chances of derailing the "Black Stars" train to Germany. Surprising Togo also is close to sealing its spot, but it might need a tie or victory on the road in Brazzaville to hold off still-threatening Senegal. The other three qualifying groups are more finely balanced. WC finals veterans Cameroon holds a one-point advantage over Cote d'Ivoire, but the "Indomitable Lions" probably will need to win at home against potential spoiler Egypt to secure their spot. Similarly, surprise Angola probably needs to win their last match at Rwanda in order to hold off the group favorite "Super Eagles" of Nigeria. Finally, North African rivals Tunisia and Morocco square off October 8 in a winner-take-all match in Tunis, with a tie being just as good as a win for the home side. Asia In contrast to Africa, qualifying in Asia is all but finally determined. Four teams have already clinched their spots in Germany--a very unsurprising list that includes regional powerhouses Japan, Iran, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia. Uzbekistan and Bahrain are the only other Asian countries still clinging to hope; the winner of their two-game home-and-home playoff on October 8 and 12, will then face the fourth-place team from North and Central America (probably Guatemala or Trinidad and Tobago) in a similar playoff to claim one of the final two spots available. North and Central America (including the Caribbean) After the pivotal matches of early September, the situation has become pretty clear in northern America. As expected, the region's two giants, Mexico and the United States, have already claimed their spots in Germany. Also of no surprise, Costa Rica now looks almost certain to claim the region's third spot. That leaves only the tight battle for fourth place and the chance to play-off against Asia's #5 team (Uzbekistan or Bahrain) for a ticket to Germany. Thanks to a big come-from-behind home victory over Guatemala on September 3, Trinidad and Tobago remains very much alive. Guatemala continues to hold a one-point lead with two games to play, but T&T may actually have the edge given its remaining games are against last-place Panama and then a potentially unmotivated Mexico at home in Port of Spain. Guatemala, in contrast, still must play in Mexico City before closing out the campaign at home to the always-strong Ticos of Costa Rica. South America (and Oceania) South America’s marathon tournament has just two rounds left, but much remains to be determined. Giants Argentina and Brazil have already qualified, while surprising Ecuador and Paraguay are both just one good result away from joining them in Germany. Behind them, though, are three teams still mathematically alive to sneak into the top four--Uruguay, Colombia, and Chile. These three WC finals veterans, however, separated by just a single point, are most likely battling it out for the fifth-place team's invitation to a playoff series against Oceania champion Australia. Key matches to watch are Colombia-Chile and Ecuador-Uruguay on October 8, and Paraguay-Colombia and Chile-Ecuador on October 12. Europe Besides the automatically-qualified host Germany, only Ukraine has officially secured one of the 14 spots on offer to Europe. Several others, though, are close to sealing their place with just two games left to play. These probable qualifiers include traditional powers the Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy. Thanks to a recent shock defeat to Northern Ireland, favorite England must now win its final two games at home against Austria and Poland to confirm its place in Germany. Either Switzerland or France will likely earn another of Europe’s spots, while the battle is also close between Serbia-Montenegro and Spain, and between Sweden and Croatia. Europe’s remaining five places will come from the eight second-place teams in their respective groups. Besides the losers of the two-team battles noted above, these second-chance combatants will likely include the Czechs or the Romanians, the Turks or the Greeks (or perhaps the Danes), the Slovakians or the Russians, Norway or Slovenia (or possibly Scotland), and Croatia or Sweden. Israel, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Belgium also can still cling to hope. In short, there's a lot of soccer still to be played, and a number of big names are keeping their fans very much on edge (most notably England, Spain, and France). Pivotal matches to come include Denmark-Greece, Switzerland-France, Belgium-Spain, England-Austria, and Croatia-Sweden on October 8, and England-Poland, Slovakia-Russia, Ireland-Switzerland, Slovenia-Scotland, and Serbia-Bosnia on October 12. Let the fun begin!